Smart position sizing & risk management

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Market Structure

Free Cash Flow

The cash a company generates after accounting for capital expenditures. The money actually available to pay dividends, buy back stock, or reinvest.

What is Free Cash Flow?

Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash a company generates from its operations minus the money it spends on capital expenditures (buildings, equipment, technology). It represents the actual cash available to the company after keeping the business running. Many investors consider FCF a more honest measure of financial health than earnings because it is harder to manipulate with accounting tricks.

Why it matters

  • Cash is real: earnings can be inflated through accounting (depreciation schedules, one-time gains, deferred revenue). Cash flow is harder to fake. Either the cash is in the bank or it is not
  • Dividends and buybacks: companies need actual cash to pay dividends and buy back stock. A company with high earnings but low FCF may struggle to maintain its dividend
  • Growth funding: FCF is what funds expansion without taking on debt. Companies with strong FCF can grow without diluting shareholders
  • Valuation: many professional investors value companies based on FCF rather than earnings. The price-to-FCF ratio is considered more reliable than P/E for capital-intensive businesses

Positive vs negative FCF

  • Positive FCF: the company generates more cash than it spends. This is healthy and sustainable
  • Negative FCF: the company spends more than it generates. This can be acceptable for high-growth companies investing heavily, but it is a warning sign for mature companies
When you hear "this company is a cash machine," they are talking about free cash flow. Earnings tell you what the accountants calculated. Free cash flow tells you what actually showed up in the bank account.